ALANA (African Latino Asian and Native American) voters play a critical role in many legislative districts in Minnesota (see below). In an earlier report I documented the ethnic economy in all legislative districts and the state and offered ideas to build wealth. This economic representation is critical as ALANA leaders were a party at the table during the Redistricting process making the case for adequate economic representation. The resulting legislative districts reflect these economic interests. There are some interesting power dynamics at play at the State Capitol very sharply defined in the battle over “direct appropriations.”
Presenting data below to show why elected leaders from both the GOP and DFL need to take the ALANA vote seriously. It builds on some earlier analysis on the critical role of the ALANA voter. In almost half of the legislative districts, the ALANA population was greater than the margin of victory in those districts – in some cases, extremely close races.
In races for the Minnesota House for the last 2024 election I looked at the margin of victory across legislative districts and identified those districts where the percentage of ALANA population is greater than that margin of victory – implying that the ALANA vote could swing those races. For the Senate, the previous analysis from the 2022 elections still hold, though it needs to be updated for the more recent special elections for some seats.
GOP Analysis
In at least 17 Greater Minnesota and Suburban House races, GOP candidates won election in districts where the percentage of ALANA population was greater than the margin of victory in that close race. In 2 races the percentage of ALANA population was almost equal to the margin of victory. Implication – in a split House scenario ALANA voters could flip that district if they are not adequately represented. Similar trends can be found in the Senate close races.
From the data – these are 17 GOP districts where the ALANA population is greater than the margin of victory in the 2024 election: District 2 A (Duran), District 2 B (Bliss), District 3 B (Zelenzikar), District 11 A (Dotseth), District 14 A (Perryman), District 18 (Schwartz), District 21 B (Fogelman), District 23 B (Mueller), District 26 A (Repinski), District 32 A (Nolan), District 34 A (Nadeau), District 36 A (Engen), District 37 A (Robbins), District 41 A (Johnson), District 41 B (Dippel), District 45 A (Myers), District 57 B (Witte).
DFL Analysis
In at least 37 House races in Greater Minnesota and the Suburbs, DFL candidates won the election by a margin that was smaller than the percentage of ALANA population in that district. Implication – in a split House scenario ALANA voters could flip that district if they are not adequately represented. Similar trends can be found in the Senate races.
From the data – these are 37 DFL districts where the ALANA population is greater than their margin of victory in the last election- District 4 A (Keeler), District 14 B (Wolgamott), District 18 B (Fredrich), District 24 B (Liebling), District 25A (Hicks), District 25 B (Smith), District 32 B (Norris), District 33 B (Hill), District 34 B (Hortman), District 35 A (Stephenson), District 35 B (RehrRauer), District 37 B (Bahner), District 38 A (Hiltsley), District 38 B (Vang), District 39 A(Koegel), District 42 A (Caroll), District 43 A (Frazier), District 44 A (Fischer), District 44B (Lillie), District 47 A (Hemmingson-Jager), District 47 B (Cha), District 49 B (Kotyza-Witthuhn), District 51 b(Coulter), District 52 A (Reyer), District 52 B (Virnig), District 53 A (Clardy), District 53 B (Hansen), District 54 A (Tabke), District 54 B (Bakeberg), District 55A (Hanson), District 55 (Berg), District 56 A (Bierman), District 56 B (Huot), District 58 A (Pursell), District 66 B (Hollins), District 67 A (Lee), District 67 B (Xiong)
The bottom line is that ALANA voters historically and more so currently played a critical role in the electoral success of various candidates elected to the State Capitol and Congress. Their economic interests need to have thoughtful and adequate representation, failing which there can be some more surprises in the next election.
ALANA voters need to also feel respected and ethically troublesome strategies of painting the community in a negative light when the facts speak otherwise, should cease.
I will be happy to share this data with anyone – what would be better – elected leaders do their own analysis and ask the question – Am I adequately representing the ALANA population in my district? Voters are watching…
