There is currently a heated debate on Somali Minnesotans, especially in relation to fraudulent activity conducted by some in that community. (A recent KSTP report citing my research on their economic contributions. Subsequently a Star Tribune column by Ka Vang was also widely shared). The video, viewed over six million times, revealed something important:
Two very different issues are being mixed together.
A real and serious fraud scandal involving individuals who must be investigated and prosecuted.
A harmful narrative suggesting that an entire community has “no value.”
Both require attention—but they require different responses.
My work for decades has focused on measuring the economic contributions of ALANA (African, Latino, Asian, and Native American) communities. Because there is so little local-level data, myth often replaces fact. I did not conduct this research to defend or praise anyone. My purpose was—and remains—to provide Minnesotans with something too often missing in public debate: measurable facts.
The data presented is not a cost benefit analysis where one assesses costs and benefits and then net benefits/costs. I am presenting data only on economic contributions.
To help the public and policymakers understand the data and methods behind my research, I have published a brief FAQ explaining:
• How economic contribution estimates are generated
• What Census data does and does not capture
• What the IMPLAN model measures and why it is used by state agencies
• Why labor participation, tax incidence, and sector impacts matter
• How we can hold individuals accountable without erasing the dignity or contribution of the entire community
Minnesotans deserve fairness, accountability, and accuracy—especially when emotions run high.
We need both facts and dignity.
Latest Data: Since the KSTP story there is more current data on Somalis in Minnesota by the US Census, American Community Survey, 2024. You will find the details here. The new Census estimates are much higher than my analysis as it takes into consideration growth in the community.
Read the FAQs here.
Q1: Why are you responding to the recent debate about Somalis in Minnesota?
Because a KSTP story quoting my research on Somali Minnesotans’ economic contributions drew over six million views and many comments — many misunderstanding the data or dismissing an entire community. Minnesotans deserve facts and fairness, especially when emotions are high.
The data presented is not a cost benefit analysis where one assesses costs and benefits and then net benefits/costs. I am presenting data only on economic contributions.
Q2: What are the two main public issues being conflated?
- A very real and large fraud scandal involving some individuals of Somali ancestry.
- A harmful narrative claiming the Somali community “has no value” or is “garbage.”
These are separate issues and must be treated separately.
Fraud Demands Accountability. Human Worth is Not Up for Debate.
Q3: What is your position on fraud?
Fraud demands accountability and prosecution.
Fraudsters betray taxpayers, harm those most needing support, and damage the reputation of law-abiding people. Individuals responsible should be punished and some estimates place the fraud at close to a billion dollars.
Q4: Why did you conduct research on Somali economic contributions?
For decades I have studied the economic roles of ALANA communities (African, Latino, Asian, and Native American). There is little local-level data or national data specific to our diverse ALANA communities, so stereotypes tend to fill the gaps. My goal is not to praise or defend anyone but to provide Minnesotans with something often missing: measurable facts on ALANA economic contributions.
Q5: What data did you use to estimate Somali economic activity?
I shared three standard indicators of economic participation:
- Total household income or consumer power (from Census data via the Minnesota State Demographer). I used median household income multiplied by the number of Somali households.
- Estimated state/local taxes paid (based on the Minnesota Tax Incidence Study). I used the average tax rate of 12 percent as estimated by the Minnesota Tax Incidence study.
- Economic impact modeling using IMPLAN — the same tool Minnesota agencies, chambers, and legislators use to evaluate hospitals, tourism, or stadium projects. I conducted a simulation on a model of the Minnesotan economy estimating the total output supported by Somali workers in Minnesota.
Q6: How did you arrive at the $500+ million income estimate?
I took the number of Somali households and multiplied it by median Somali household income.
Despite high poverty rates, Somali Minnesotans collectively generate over half a billion dollars in spending power, meaning they contribute to Minnesota’s economy even if they are not as affluent as others. Somalis, like other Americans who receive public money, such as farmers, spend their income in the economy generating economic activity. Somalis who work and receive wages also spend in the economy.
All over the world people tend to discount the value of low income people, yet without their spending and participation in the workforce, our economy would collapse.
Q7: Do Somalis pay taxes, or is their income all public support?
Somalis with earned income pay taxes like other Minnesotans — through sales taxes, property taxes, payroll taxes, and other local taxes. Since they are recent immigrants they have lower income levels than more established immigrant groups. Somalis have a 70 percent labor force participation rate.
The Minnesota Tax Incidence Study shows Minnesotans on average pay about 12% of income toward state and local taxes. For the lowest income Minnesotans the effective tax rate is even higher. Applying this rate yields an estimated $67 million in taxes from Somali households.
Importantly:
- The tax incidence figure counts welfare cash payments in income but does not count welfare benefits like SNAP,
- and not all Somalis receive public assistance.
Q8: Are Somalis mostly dependent on welfare?
State Demographic Center data shows:
- 27.9 percent live in poverty, (Latest data from Census )
- Somalis have a 70% labor force participation rate. (Latest data from Census )
Latest data from the Census sheds light on cash assistance and food stamp use by the community – see here. We know Somalis are in the workforce that include workers, truck drivers, entrepreneurs, professors, nurses, small business owners, and professionals. Their high self-employment rate is reflected in Somali malls like Karmel Mall. There is strong participation of females in the workforce and in entrepreneurship.
Q9: Why does Somali labor matter to Minnesota?
Nearly one-third of Minnesota’s workforce is over age 55. Minnesota faces shortages in key sectors — health care, transportation, retail, and manufacturing — where Somali workers are active. Every younger worker matters to the state’s future competitiveness.
Q10: How did you estimate the $8 billion economic impact?
Using IMPLAN — a widely used modeling tool applied to economic activity such as hospitals, higher education, and tourism.
Applying this model to Somali workforce participation suggests an economic impact of roughly $8 billion which is larger than the economies of many Minnesota counties. It means Somali labor plays an active, measurable role in the state economy.
The model shows that the economic activity supported by Somali workers in turn generates around a billion dollars in federal state and local taxes.
Q11: Is the magnitude of fraud greater than Somali economic contributions?
A: As mentioned earlier this is an economic contribution analysis and not a cost benefit analysis.
Q: Are you reducing human value to a number?
A: No. A human being cannot be reduced to a number.
This research does not define anyone’s worth, it simply documents one dimension of contribution: economic participation.
People contribute through culture, family, faith, service, creativity, and community. Economic numbers are not a measure of dignity, but they help counter claims that an entire community “has no value.”
The data shows that narrative is factually wrong — and human value goes far beyond what any spreadsheet can measure.
Q11: Why Do People Disagree About Somali Economic Contributions?
This is not a fight between “truth” and “propaganda.”
It is a disagreement about what kind of economic question is being asked. Different studies look at different things, and each tells only part of the story.
1. One-Year Snapshot vs. Long-Term View
Some studies look at just one year and ask whether Somali Minnesotans pay more in taxes than they receive in public services during that year. Other studies look at changes over time, including how families and children do in the long run. A one-year snapshot often shows higher costs because many Somali families are young and still building income. A long-term view recognizes that education, jobs, and earnings usually improve over time and across generations.
2. Selective Accounting vs. Fair Accounting for Everyone
Some critics subtract public spending from taxes only for Somali Minnesotans. But the same method is rarely used for all Minnesotans, such as children, seniors, low-income workers, or industries that receive subsidies. A fair analysis should use the same rules for everyone. When accounting is selective, it can make one group look uniquely costly, even though similar patterns exist across the population at different stages of life.
3. Economic Participation vs. Government Budget Balance
Economic contribution studies measure economic participation—jobs worked, businesses run, income earned, and spending that supports other workers and businesses. These studies show how Somali Minnesotans are part of Minnesota’s economy. Other studies focus on government budgets, comparing taxes paid to public services received. Problems arise when people criticize economic participation studies for not being budget balance sheets. These are two different measures, and both are useful when used correctly.
4. Short-Term Costs vs. Long-Term Returns
Helping new immigrant and refugee families often costs money at first, especially for schools, health care, and basic support. The important question is whether those early costs lead to long-term benefits, such as better jobs, higher incomes, and more taxes paid later. Minnesota’s Hmong community shows how early public investment can lead to strong economic progress over time. Focusing only on short-term costs misses this bigger picture.
How These Views Appear in Public Debate
Some focus mainly on short-term costs and government spending. My work focuses on economic participation and contribution, showing how Somali Minnesotans and other Minnesotans work, start businesses, and support the economy. Comprehensive academic research like that done by the National Academies of Science connects these views by studying how costs and benefits change over time and across generations.
Understanding these four differences helps explain why people reach different conclusions—and why good policy needs to look at all four, not just one.
Q12: So what is the takeaway?
Minnesota can and must prosecute fraud.
The Somali Minnesotan community is an important engine of economic growth in Minnesota. What is also evident in Minnesota is the many other ways they contribute to the cultural and civic life of the state.
Accountability and dignity are not mutually exclusive.
A healthy democracy does both.
According to these figures, with a household income of $28,500 and assuming a household of 4, they contribute $3,384 in state and local taxes but with MFIP and state medical assistance (MA) they drain around $30,000 from the rest of MN taxpayers.
The $8 billion comes from a mysterious “model”. Does it just take earned income and multiply it by 16? Does it take government payments to the group and counts it as dollars then circulated into the state? (i.e. they earn $0.5B and receive $7.5B from the government = $8b?) What is the economic impact of an “average sample” of 80,000 Minnesotans who are not Somali? Very un-satisfying to read this $8b figure and to have it be so opaque.